Original Research

Reasoning under uncertainty within the context of probability education: A case study of preservice mathematics teachers

Samah G.A. Elbehary
Pythagoras | Vol 42, No 1 | a630 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.4102/pythagoras.v42i1.630 | © 2021 Samah G.A. Elbehary | This work is licensed under CC Attribution 4.0
Submitted: 22 May 2021 | Published: 17 December 2021

About the author(s)

Samah G.A. Elbehary, Curriculum and Instruction Department, Faculty of Education, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt


Share this article

Bookmark and Share

Abstract

Interpreting phenomena under uncertainty stands as a substantial cognitive activity in our daily life. Furthermore, in probability education research, there is a need for developing a unified model that involves several probabilistic conceptions. From this aspect, a central inquiry has been raised through this study: how do preservice mathematics teachers (PSMTs) reason under uncertainty? A multiple case study design was operated in which a purposive sample of PSMTs was selected to justify their reasoning in two probabilistic contexts while their responses were coded by NVivo, and corresponding categories were developed. As a result, PSMTs’ probabilistic reasoning was classified into mathematical (M), subjective (S), and outcome-oriented (O). Besides, several biases emerged along with these modes of reasoning. While M thinkers shared equiprobability and insensitivity to prior probability, the prediction bias and the belief of Allah’s willingness were yielded among S thinkers. Also, the causal conception spread among O thinkers.

Keywords

Allah’s willingness; Egypt; preservice mathematics teachers; probability biases; reasoning under uncertainty

Metrics

Total abstract views: 273
Total article views: 127


Crossref Citations

No related citations found.